Picks suspendedEvery division. Display-only.Why
Our backtest rerun is complete, and our match-result probabilities have since been tested against the closing market price and did not beat it. Probabilities shown are display-only model outputs, not recommendations.
Don't trust a tip.
Check the numbers.
BetDaybook evaluates football fixtures using expected goals, probability models and data-quality checks, and shows the working behind each probability. Picks are suspended; probabilities are display-only.
No guaranteed winners. No hidden record. No black-box picks.
We tested our match-result probabilities against the closing price, once, with the rules written down first. They lost.
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Most betting sites give you a pick. We give you the working.
Every number exposed · No forced picks · The record stays visible.
Every number exposed
See the source figures, season, weighting and evaluation checks behind the model. If the evidence isn't strong enough, BetDaybook says No Strong View.
No forced picks
No picks are being published right now. While publication was live, BetDaybook said No Strong View rather than manufacture a pick to fill a page, and the record stays visible.
The record stays visible
Evaluations published before the suspension were recorded before kickoff and settled against the real result. Settled losses remain visible in the public ledger forever.
From fixture to probability in three steps.
Expected goals → Scoreline probabilities → Market selection.
Calculate expected goals
Expected goals (λ and μ) are computed from recency-weighted scoring and conceding rates across 42 watched competitions.
Turn goals into scoreline probabilities
A Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model converts expected goals into a probability distribution across all possible scorelines.
Market selection & settlement
Before publication was suspended, markets clearing the required deviation threshold entered the public ledger before kickoff and settled automatically after full time. Nothing is being published now.
Don't take our word for it. Watch the ledger.
Wins are recorded. Losses are recorded. Voids are recorded. Published entries are not quietly removed after settlement.
FC Sion vs FC Zurich
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Sometimes the answer is: nothing.
BetDaybook never needed to produce a pick for every match, and right now it produces none: every division is suspended and the probabilities shown are display-only.
Before you place the bet, see what the numbers say.
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