A scoreline model for 29 watched leagues. Every expected-goals figure, source rate, and data quality check exposed in full.
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Not validated against bookmaker pricing. Probabilities render in neutral text; green is reserved for settled results.
11 points above this league's 72% base rate
UEFA Europa League average: 2.67 goals per match
We checked 727 completed top-flight fixtures against our model predictions. Here is how often we were right, where we were wrong, and the sample size behind every percentage.
| Market | Predicted Band | Sample (N) | Model Mean | Observed Hit Rate | Delta | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/Under 2.5 | 50–60% | 498 | 53.7% | 50.8% (253/498) | -2.9% | Suppressed (<60%) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 60–70% | 192 | 63.5% | 66.7% (128/192) | +3.2% | Eligible (≥60% Floor) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 70–80% | 32 | 73.1% | 75.0% (24/32) | +1.9% | Small sample (N=32) |
| Both Teams To Score | 50–60% | 480 | 54.4% | 52.9% (254/480) | -1.4% | Suppressed (<60%) |
| Both Teams To Score | 60–70% | 224 | 63.7% | 62.9% (141/224) | -0.8% | Eligible (≥60% Floor) |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 70–80% | 408 | 75.3% | 77.2% (315/408) | +1.9% | Eligible (≥70% Floor) |
| 1X2 (Home Win) | 50–60% | 91 | 53.5% | 56.0% (51/91) | +2.5% | Suppressed (<60%) |
Decile bands with sample size N < 50 are flagged as insufficient sample size to avoid publishing uncalibrated noise.
No market in our model has passed Gate 2 calibration. We do not beat the bookmaker’s closing line on any market at any confidence level we can demonstrate.
Therefore, no grade implies profitability or a guaranteed winning bet. Grade tiers describe structural data completeness and statistical agreement across components, not financial advice.
We publish our entire track record — wins, losses, and zeroes — in an append-only log that settles automatically. We believe honest probabilities with full provenance are far more valuable than unverified promises.
Our public record opens with the first settled fixture.
Every result after that — won or lost — is written here automatically in settlement order and cannot be edited.
Three sequential steps behind every evaluation.
Expected goals (λ and μ) are computed from recency-weighted home/away scoring and conceding rates across 29 watched competitions.
A Dixon-Coles scoreline matrix derives exact probabilities for 1X2, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5, BTTS, Double Chance, and team totals.
Published evaluations land in an append-only public record before kickoff and settle automatically when official results complete.
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